Reference Layer: Prime Vector Stability Modeling
Classification: Closed System Outcomes
HOUSE VEYROND
Predicted: 1144
Collapsed: 1149
Sector: Agricultural Futures & Grain Storage
Collapse Cause
Veyrond controlled nearly 40% of Derth’s seasonal grain reserve contracts. They began selling future harvest claims at artificially suppressed prices, borrowing against future yields.
Trigger
Three successive seasons of above-average harvests masked the risk. Then, in 1148, river flooding destroyed two storage vaults.
Failure Mode
Immediate loss of collateral.
Credit lines froze.
Unable to fulfill futures contracts.
Panic withdrawals.
City grain reserves had to be redistributed.
Notes
Intervention would have concentrated famine risk into a single node. Allow collapse.
HOUSE MARRAKEL
Predicted: 1152
Collapsed: 1155
Sector: Kiln Coal & Brickworks
Collapse Cause
Marrakel vertically integrated fuel supply, kiln ownership, and masonry contracting.
Trigger
They issued debt-backed contracts based on future city expansion plans that never fully materialized.
Failure Mode
Overbuilt kiln complexes.
Coal transport costs rose unexpectedly.
Brick inventories accumulated unsold.
Interest overtook asset liquidity.
Bond default cascade.
Notes
Artificial growth loop detected. Stability improved by contraction.
HOUSE THOLIEN
Predicted: 1163
Collapsed: 1166
Sector: Ivory, spices, and high-luxury imports
Collapse Cause
Tholien relied on a single long-route caravan network protected by exclusive port agreements.
Trigger
A coastal revolt severed their primary shipping lanes.
Failure Mode
No alternative trade corridors.
Loss of monopoly protection.
Credit guarantees invalidated.
Unable to renegotiate port tariffs.
Inventory stranded, unrecoverable.
Notes
Monopolistic dependency loop. Fail to diversify means termination.
HOUSE ELTROSS
Predicted: 1170
Collapsed: 1173
Sector: Intercity Lending & Speculative Credit
Collapse Cause
Eltross began selling debt packages tied to other unstable houses.
Trigger
Two minor houses defaulted simultaneously.
Failure Mode
Cascading debt recall.
Credit contraction city-wide.
Forced asset liquidation.
Cross-default clauses activated.
Eltross declared insolvent.
Notes
Secondary collapse necessary to dampen tertiary cascade.
HOUSE BRAVIK
Predicted: 1181
Collapsed: 1185
Sector: Shipbuilding & Naval Outfitting
Collapse Cause
Bravik expanded into heavy deep-keel hull production in anticipation of long-range blue-water naval doctrine that Moravia never adopted.
Trigger
Foreign maritime coalitions dissolved and Moravia retained a coastal-defense posture.
Failure Mode
Unsellable hull inventory.
Long-term timber and rope contracts locked.
Naval orders cancelled.
Credit downgrades and labor idling.
Debt service overtook liquidity.
Notes
Doctrinal misalignment with sovereign naval posture.
STARFALL CARAVELS
Predicted: 1194
Projected Failure Window: 1196–1198
Sector: Long-Range Maritime Freight & Convoy Charter
Collapse Cause
Starfall expanded fleet tonnage through layered credit instruments tied to optimistic freight-demand projections.
Trigger
Port tariff increases and three pending unrecoverable hull losses.
Failure Mode
Liquidity contraction.
Credit recall cascade.
Charter cancellations.
Asset liquidation.
Insolvency filing.
Notes
Intervention not advised. Natural correction preferred.